Tag Archives: math

Better Lucky Than Good: A Fantasy Rant

I don’t know where else to fucking vent about how much bullshit fantasy football can be, so I’m doing it here.

Here’s the standings with PF and PA after two weeks. Week three is not factored in this photo but the results will be included in the narrative below:

Capture

You don’t really need to analyze it, I’m gonna fuckin’ do it for you. It’s just there as a proof.

First, a few simple yet infuriating facts:

The two teams with the most PF are two of my opponents so far.

I have the 3rd most PA overall.

The three teams with the most PA have NO wins.

Of the top five teams for PF, I am the only team with no wins.

Now, let’s dive in a little, with the knowledge of what happened this week:

I would have beaten over half the league in each of these first three weeks.

I have twice in three weeks played the highest scoring team.

I am very likely as a result to move into the top four for scoring, still winless.

The five teams with the fewest PF have four wins among them.

The bottom two teams for PF still have two wins.

So, let’s synthesize:

Yes, it’s only three weeks, so statistically none of this is relevant, but anecdotally, which is all that actually matters here, it is very important.

Given that the two shittiest teams by PF have two wins and the unluckiest three teams in PA have NO wins, it’s clear that I am the unluckiest team in the league, by virtue of playing teams when they post good numbers. Being shitty and posting barely 100 points a game has still earned our two worst teams wins. My PF is almost irrelevant.

People in my league, whom I trust, keep telling me my team is good, but frankly, I do not think it matters as much as just fucking being lucky. Sure, if we played 1000 games the better teams would win out, but with only 11 games in the regular season being lucky as at least as important as being good until you reach the playoffs. Even then…

One of those same people said there should be a H2H matchup every week, with an additional win or loss based on whether you were in the top half of PF that week. It would go a long way to curb bullshit starts like this, where a team that has performed each of the first three weeks is basically done for the year unless they get lucky on a magnitude at LEAST as much as their previous bad luck.

It’s midnight, I don’t feel any catharsis from this, fuck me I’m going to get a beer. Good fucking night.

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